{"id":18330,"date":"2024-02-01T14:33:44","date_gmt":"2024-02-01T14:33:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/soicau1007.minhngocxoso.com\/?p=18330"},"modified":"2024-02-01T14:33:44","modified_gmt":"2024-02-01T14:33:44","slug":"cach-tinh-xac-suat-lo-de-an-cao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/soicau88mb.com\/cach-tinh-xac-suat-lo-de-an-cao\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0103n cao"},"content":{"rendered":"

L\u00e0m sao \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y? H\u00f4m nay  s\u1ebd h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean chu\u1ea9n nh\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m. Anh enm c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 soi c\u1ea7u l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 h\u00f4m nay ra con g\u00ec \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 chu\u1ea9n \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. \u0110\u1ec3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 anh em n\u00ean t\u00edch l\u0169y th\u00eam kinh nghi\u1ec7m l\u1eabn k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t t\u0103ng l\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0103n cao.<\/p>\n

1. C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/h3>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1 tr\u00fang 1 con: \u0110\u1ec1 l\u00e0 2 s\u1ed1 cu\u1ed1i gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t n\u00ean ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 duy nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t con. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00fang s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 1\/100.<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang \u0111\u1ec1 3 c\u00e0ng: C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang \u0111\u1ec1 3 c\u00e0ng r\u1ea5t ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, v\u1eady n\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng chia s\u1ebb r\u1eb1ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang \u0111\u1ec1 3 c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh b\u1edfi c\u00e1c ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 1\/1000 = 0.1%<\/p>\n

2. H\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 chu\u1ea9n<\/h3>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 tr\u00fang 1 l\u00f4<\/h4>\n

X\u1ed5 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc c\u00f3 27 gi\u1ea3i x\u1ed5 s\u1ed1, v\u00ec th\u1ebf ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 27 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u00fang l\u00f4, x\u1ed5 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n Nam, mi\u1ec1n Trung c\u00f3 18 gi\u1ea3i n\u00ean ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng c\u00f3 18 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111o\u00e1n l\u00f4. Tuy nhi\u00ean x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i th\u1eadt nh\u01b0 v\u1eady kh\u00f4ng? Ta c\u00f9ng t\u00ednh th\u1eed x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a 27 gi\u1ea3i XSMB l\u00e0 100%, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 1 gi\u1ea3i l\u00e0 99%. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t nh\u01b0 nhau, ta c\u00f3:<\/p>\n

+ Gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t: x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 99%<\/p>\n

+ Gi\u1ea3i nh\u1ea5t: x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 99% x 99%<\/p>\n

+ Gi\u1ea3i nh\u1ea5t: x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 99% x 99%<\/p>\n

+ Gi\u1ea3i 27: x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 (99%)27<\/sup> = 0,7623<\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0103n nhi\u1ec1u l\u00f4<\/h4>\n

T\u1eeb x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang 1 l\u00f4, ta c\u00f3 c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang nhi\u1ec1u l\u00f4 nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n

+ X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang 2 l\u00f4 l\u00e0: 1 \u2013 (98%)27 <\/sup>~ 0,42 t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 42%<\/p>\n

+ X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang 3 l\u00f4 l\u00e0: 1 \u2013 (97%)27 <\/sup>~ 0,56 t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 56%<\/p>\n

+ X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang 4 l\u00f4 l\u00e0: 1 \u2013 (96%)27 <\/sup>~ 0,67 t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 67%<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang n l\u00f4 l\u00e0 1 \u2013 [(100 \u2013 n)%]27<\/sup><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

T\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 3 c\u00e0ng<\/h4>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 3 c\u00e0ng = 1 \u2013 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00f4 3 c\u00e0ng = 1 \u2013 0.99927<\/sup>= 2,67%<\/p>\n

T\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean \u0111\u00f4i<\/h4>\n

T\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 1 con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 99%<\/p>\n

T\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 2 con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 (99%)2<\/sup>~ 98%<\/p>\n

T\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t 3 con l\u00f4 l\u00e0 (99%)3<\/sup> ~ 97%<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 hai con (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t h\u1ebft): (98%)27<\/sup> ~ 57,9%<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00fang 1 con (tr\u01b0\u1ee3t h\u1ebft, tr\u00fang 1): 2 x 76,2% x 23,7%  ~ 36,1%<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2: 57,9% + 36,1% ~ 94%<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2 = 100% \u2013 94% cho ra t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ~ 6%.<\/p>\n

Nu\u00f4i l\u00f4 theo x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 chu\u1ea9n nh\u1ea5t<\/h3>\n

Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00ec ch\u00fang ta hay nu\u00f4i m\u1ed9t con l\u00f4 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 trong n ng\u00e0y, nh\u01b0 v\u1eady l\u00e0m sao \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u00f3 v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u00e0 bao nhi\u00eau trong n ng\u00e0y? D\u1ef1a v\u00e0o logarit trong to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ta s\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n sau:<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed A l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 trong n ng\u00e0y, ta kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang l\u1ea7n n\u00e0o<\/p>\n

B l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 ta tr\u00fang \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 1 l\u1ea7n<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ta tr\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u1ea3 27 con l\u00f4 trong d\u00e0n l\u00f4 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y l\u00e0: (99%)27<\/sup><\/p>\n

P(A) = (99%)27n<\/sup><\/p>\n

P(B) = 1\u2212P(A) = 1 \u2212 (99%)27n<\/sup><\/p>\n

P(B) > m \u21d4 (99%)27n<\/sup> < 1 \u2212 m \u21d4 n > log0,99(1 \u2212 m)\/27<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi m = 0,9999 (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 99,99%), ta c\u00f3: n > 33,9, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 trong v\u00f2ng 34 ng\u00e0y th\u00ec x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ta \u0111\u00e1nh tr\u00fang \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 1 l\u1ea7n l\u00e0 99,99%, khi \u0111\u00f3 trong v\u00f2ng 34 ng\u00e0y th\u00ec l\u00f4 b\u1ea1n nu\u00f4i c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng chia s\u1ebb v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 chu\u1ea9n nh\u1ea5t n\u0103m 2024. Hy v\u1ecdng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng Kinh nghi\u1ec7m l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y anh em c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 soi c\u1ea7u l\u00f4 t\u00f4, s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng cao nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc super vip<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\"\"\u00a0soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p b\u1ea1ch th\u1ee7 l\u00f4 2 nh\u00e1y mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\"\u00a0soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p b\u1ea1ch th\u1ee7 l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\"soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p song th\u1ee7 l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p b\u1ea1ch th\u1ee7 l\u00f4 k\u00e9p mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p song th\u1ee7 l\u00f4 k\u00e9p mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p b\u1ea1ch th\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p song th\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n \u0111\u1ec1 4 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n \u0111\u1ec1 6 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n \u0111\u1ec1 8 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n \u0111\u1ec1 10 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n l\u00f4 4 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc si\u00eau chu\u1ea9n<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\"\"\u00a0soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n l\u00f4 6 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n l\u00f4 8 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 3 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 4 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p 3 c\u00e0ng mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n 3 c\u00e0ng 2 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p d\u00e0n l\u00f4 10 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111u\u00f4i mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p mi\u1ec1n nam si\u00eau chu\u1ea9n<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p x\u1ec9u ch\u1ee7 mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p gi\u1ea3i 8 mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p bao l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p c\u1eb7p x\u1ec9u ch\u1ee7 mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p song th\u1ee7 l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111u\u00f4i gi\u1ea3i 8 mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111u\u00f4i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p l\u00f4 3 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n nam<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p mi\u1ec1n trung si\u00eau chu\u1ea9n<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p x\u1ec9u ch\u1ee7 mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p gi\u1ea3i 8 mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p bao l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p c\u1eb7p x\u1ec9u ch\u1ee7 mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p song th\u1ee7 l\u00f4 mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111u\u00f4i gi\u1ea3i 8 mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111u\u00f4i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\" soi c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb9p l\u00f4 3 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n trung<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u00e0m sao \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y? H\u00f4m nay  s\u1ebd h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18112,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[334],"tags":[3624,1362,3676,2578,2806,2577,3672,3670,3677,3673,3675,3674,3671,2480,2575,3678,3681,3679,2271,3680,2268,3686,3685,3682,3687,3684,3683],"yoast_head":"\nC\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0103n cao<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0103n cao\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/soicau88mb.com\/cach-tinh-xac-suat-lo-de-an-cao\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0103n cao\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0103n cao\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/soicau88mb.com\/cach-tinh-xac-suat-lo-de-an-cao\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"soi l\u00f4 - 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